by ferris1971
AngryMojo wrote:
vantageGT wrote:
I have to say the anti-math (and the accompanying anti-intellectual overtones) discussion here is depressing. The math of the damage system, obviously, isn't everything. But to dismiss it in a discussion of game balance is a mistake, objectively, and that will never change.
Oh, I'd love to see math beyond basic dice rolls for what we're talking about. Hence the talk of things like actual statistical analysis. Standard deviations, margins of error, z-scores, normal distributions and all their accompanying terms are mathematical concepts that the basic dice odds don't bring into play. For example:
An X-Wing firing at a TIE has a 12.5% chance of rolling three damaging results. Depending on circumstances, this can be either completely ignored by the TIE or destroy the TIE in one shot. Now the odds of destroying the TIE are pretty low in this circumstance, but it can still happen. This also doesn't take critical hits into account at all, and a Direct Hit will severely hurt the TIE being shot at. Add in the ideas of Focus, Target Lock, Evade, range bonuses and special abilities and you have a mathematical concept that quickly escapes calculation by those who don't have an education in statistics. While this math can be used at the very basics of game balance, extending it to cover an entire game is an overly simplistic argument.
Playtesting and determining game balance involves investigating individual mechanics, but considering the sheer volume of factors and data points required to mathematically balance a game of this complexity the only true data point that winds up mattering is final game outcomes. This can be gauged by a mathematical and intellectual study, take a sample survey of 2000 games and analyze the data by player, faction and victory rate. This is where the actual methods of statistics as opposed to simple probability comes into play. How often do the rebels actually win? How often do the imperials actually win? Until you get a large enough sample, you can't really tell. This is far from an anti-intellectual argument and not based on emotions in the slightest.
Sounds like a blast. Or you could just play the game.
Bazinga.