by crambaza
JustTee wrote:
Problem 1: X-Wing and Tie fighter are completely balanced when attacking/defending.
I'll be referring to this chart:
http://boardgamegeek.com/image/1420608/star-wars-x-wing-mini...
If you take a look, basic X-Wing attack is 3 dice. Basic Tie dodge is 3 dice. Average damage is ~0.6. Basic X-Wing vs an evading TIE results in 0.5 damage.
Basic TIE attack is 2 dice, and basic X-Wing defense is 2 dice. Results in 0.5 damage. Basic TIE attack vs X-Wing with focus results in 0.25 damage.
This is a problem, considering the basic X-Wing costs 21 points, and the basic TIE fighter costs 12 points. So 2 TIEs worth 24 points go against a single X-Wing, resulting in 6 hull versus 5, doing 0.75 points of damage per turn vs 0.5 points of damage per turn. So, figure it takes almost 6 shooting turns for a single X-Wing to blow up a single Tie fighter, while in 6 turns, the 2 TIE fighters will have done 4.5 damage. So the X-Wing gets 2 turns to do damage, handing out an average of 1 damage, and the last TIE blows up the X-Wing and escapes with 2 more hull.
Focus firing is important in this game, but it is equally as important for both sides. Since the Empire gets a numerical advantage from the start, this means they start the game ahead.
Notice, this scales RAPIDLY out of proportion when you factor that if 2 X-Wings fire at a single TIE, it's 42 points of value firing at 11 points. 4 TIE fighters (6 points of upgrades for the Rebels won't change anything here) firing against 1 X-Wing will blow it up considerably faster than a 2 X-Wings will blow up even 2 TIEs. 2 X-Wings need an average of 3 shooting turns to blow up 1 TIE. 4 TIEs need an average of ~3 shooting turns to blow up 1 X-Wing. So in the time it takes the 4 TIE fighters to blow up 1 X-Wing, only 1 TIE fighter is going sky-high. 3 TIE fighters are even more well equipped to take out a single X-Wing than 2.
This is bad news.
Again, think of this - your 1 X-Wing fires on a TIE fighter with evade. You average 1 point of damage every 2 turns of shooting. That TIE returns fire, doing the exact same amount of damage to you.
But I can use my focus to defend against his attacks! Ah, you forgot about his Wingman, who gets to use his focus offensively, since he is in no danger of return fire from you (remember that TIE's move after you, and therefore, are better equipped to decide whether to barrel roll, evade, or focus). Defensive focus basically cuts average damage in half. Without your defensive focus, the offensive focused TIE averages 1.2 damage per turn. So saving your focus for him cuts 0.6 damage, compared to just cutting 0.25 damage from the first TIE.
You take 1.1 damage/turn, and dish out 0.5 damage/turn. You have less hull. You are less maneuverable. You lose.
6 turns to kill one. 5 turns to die.
Consider that if an X-Wing could attack twice, even then, it's still outputting LESS damage than the 2 TIEs. Assuming it saves its focus for defense, 2 attacks on the same target will yield about ~1.2 damage per turn, which is 0.1 damage more than the TIEs output.
That's pretty crazy.
I'll be referring to this chart:
http://boardgamegeek.com/image/1420608/star-wars-x-wing-mini...
If you take a look, basic X-Wing attack is 3 dice. Basic Tie dodge is 3 dice. Average damage is ~0.6. Basic X-Wing vs an evading TIE results in 0.5 damage.
Basic TIE attack is 2 dice, and basic X-Wing defense is 2 dice. Results in 0.5 damage. Basic TIE attack vs X-Wing with focus results in 0.25 damage.
This is a problem, considering the basic X-Wing costs 21 points, and the basic TIE fighter costs 12 points. So 2 TIEs worth 24 points go against a single X-Wing, resulting in 6 hull versus 5, doing 0.75 points of damage per turn vs 0.5 points of damage per turn. So, figure it takes almost 6 shooting turns for a single X-Wing to blow up a single Tie fighter, while in 6 turns, the 2 TIE fighters will have done 4.5 damage. So the X-Wing gets 2 turns to do damage, handing out an average of 1 damage, and the last TIE blows up the X-Wing and escapes with 2 more hull.
Focus firing is important in this game, but it is equally as important for both sides. Since the Empire gets a numerical advantage from the start, this means they start the game ahead.
Notice, this scales RAPIDLY out of proportion when you factor that if 2 X-Wings fire at a single TIE, it's 42 points of value firing at 11 points. 4 TIE fighters (6 points of upgrades for the Rebels won't change anything here) firing against 1 X-Wing will blow it up considerably faster than a 2 X-Wings will blow up even 2 TIEs. 2 X-Wings need an average of 3 shooting turns to blow up 1 TIE. 4 TIEs need an average of ~3 shooting turns to blow up 1 X-Wing. So in the time it takes the 4 TIE fighters to blow up 1 X-Wing, only 1 TIE fighter is going sky-high. 3 TIE fighters are even more well equipped to take out a single X-Wing than 2.
This is bad news.
Again, think of this - your 1 X-Wing fires on a TIE fighter with evade. You average 1 point of damage every 2 turns of shooting. That TIE returns fire, doing the exact same amount of damage to you.
But I can use my focus to defend against his attacks! Ah, you forgot about his Wingman, who gets to use his focus offensively, since he is in no danger of return fire from you (remember that TIE's move after you, and therefore, are better equipped to decide whether to barrel roll, evade, or focus). Defensive focus basically cuts average damage in half. Without your defensive focus, the offensive focused TIE averages 1.2 damage per turn. So saving your focus for him cuts 0.6 damage, compared to just cutting 0.25 damage from the first TIE.
You take 1.1 damage/turn, and dish out 0.5 damage/turn. You have less hull. You are less maneuverable. You lose.
6 turns to kill one. 5 turns to die.
Consider that if an X-Wing could attack twice, even then, it's still outputting LESS damage than the 2 TIEs. Assuming it saves its focus for defense, 2 attacks on the same target will yield about ~1.2 damage per turn, which is 0.1 damage more than the TIEs output.
That's pretty crazy.
You have made so many errors or assumptions that are not justified, all in the name of math, that it hurts my brain.
I have decided to only tackle your Problem 1 because this is where most of your math is. I want to tackle my 2 biggest problems with your statements.
First, you keep talking about having your TIE fighters being evasive, which is certainly a good idea. But then you also mention that one TIE fighter will use his focus offensively to do more damage to me. The incorrect assumption that I continue to shoot at the evading TIE fighter, instead of the 'focused' TIE fighter is a huge error. At the simplistic level you are analyzing this, to take advantage of evasion, you need to evade with both of the TIE fighters, because I will always shoot at the one not evading.
To quickly use your own numbers, now my damage is 0.6 a turn, not 0.5 a turn. At 0.6 a turn, it only takes 5 turns to blow up a TIE fighter. At your figure of 0.75 a turn for TIE damage output, that means after 5 turns, I have taken 3.75 damage, and have 1.25 left. Now we can count your evasion, as you are the only TIE fighter left. You said that the TIE fighter can output 0.25 a turn, so I have 5 turns left. In those 5 turns, you said that my X-wing can output 2.5 damage, meaning that the TIE fighter wins, with 0.5 hull left.
But, let's analyze that result. First, it's close, with the Empire slightly ahead, which they should be, they had 3 extra points on the battlefield. Second, at 0.5 hull left, we can't actually have that as a result, so either my last shot missed the TIE, and he has a full point, or it hit the TIE, and he is dead. The 0.5 left could almost be interpreted as a percentage, and 50/50 is as even as it gets.
The second part is about scaling the problem up. You mention that it will take
JustTee wrote:
2 X-Wings need an average of 3 shooting turns to blow up 1 TIE.
Let's use your assumption that the TIE is evading. My X-Wings will use focus, and try to kill your TIE. From the handy table you have referenced, it shows that 3 Focused dice VS 3 dice with evasion has an expected outcome of 0.5 damage. Now, of course, you forget that now you do NOT have evasion. You already used it to negate damage. My second X-Wing is 3 Focused dice VS 3 dice with no evasion, which has an expected damage output of a little more than 1.2. So, in 1 round, I have done ~1.7 damage. I only need 1.76 rounds to do the 3 damage needed to dispatch the first TIE fighter. Now it's 2v3.
If we use your TIE numbers, with them needing 3 rounds to blow up an X-Wing, it would actually be a little more because you lose a TIE fighter in the second round, and don't have it's firepower to contribute. So, it takes a little more than 3 rounds to destroy your X-Wing, and in 3.4 rounds, I destroyed 2 TIE fighters. Seems fairly even again. AND this doesn't even take into account those
JustTee wrote:
6 points of upgrades for the Rebels won't change anything here
Actually, I have one more point to make.
You mentioned in a snobish way in retaliation to another poster's real world experience
JustTee wrote:
Anecdotal evidence vs statistical break down of averages?
If we use your super simplistic way of over simplification, I can show that Artoo's value is great, even though
JustTee wrote:
He simply hasn't provided the value in our games.
Your number for 2 TIE damage output is 1.1 per turn. Let's assume you are right. Artoo has the power to 'refund' 1 point per turn. The net result is 0.1 damage per turn from your TIE fighters. Now it is going to take 50 turns to destroy my X-Wing. But, of course, your real world experience shows that you don't need 50 turns to destroy an X-Wing with Artoo.
I guess the conclusion we need to reach is that we cannot just simplify the results down to a few numbers that we add and subtract to prove our points. It would take an actual indepth analysis to show what is actually happening, and I don't think you have taken that time, nor have you proven your point.